Hello once again,
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries
in the next 10 years - and most people won't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that three years later you would never take pictures on film again?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world.
Airbnb (pronounced Air-B-N-B) is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties. (Looked them up, (www.airbnb.com) 1,500,000 listings in 191 countries.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. (An Asian game of walls, flags etc. currently 24 million people play)
In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
Watson already helps with diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than humans. Facebook now has pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million mi (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.
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Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There
are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.
It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came
down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.
Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports.
The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.
In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.
Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.
Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency of the world. (This is digital money, a new kind of money which you can currently buy and sell.)
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.
Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries. We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Swahili and Chinese this Summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year. (Looked up Khan Academy, it is a free, non profit, world class education for anyone, any language, in math, art, computer programming, economics, physics, chemistry, biology, medicine, finance, history . . . etc.)
With all this free stuff, I do not see how many will pay their bills. Unless everyone is on welfare so even their bitcoin is free.
Here is an award winning chili recipe . . . Could not fit this into the October 4th letter.
Debdoozie's Blue Ribbon Chili
"I live in Texas where the chili cook-off competition is fierce, and I had to enter it in the "Non-Texas" category because it has beans in it. Mine was lucky no. 7 (out of 14 in the category), and it won! It is a true blue-ribbon recipe. It got lots of compliments. It could have been a might spicier for my Texan taste, but for those not used to spice it's perfect — award-winning in fact!" — Tamara
"I actually won a chili contest at work with this recipe! Great, and super easy… and even beats my mom's :) — Shhh don't tell!" — chadobryhim
"This truly IS the best and easiest recipe EVER! I do it in the crockpot to make it even simpler. I, too, have won chili cook-offs with this without changing a thing." — lbarbour
"Be sure to enter this chili in contests at work…it WINS all the time." — DEBZDOO
Recipe By: Deb
"This is the tastiest, easiest chili recipe you'll ever find. I recommend serving it with sliced jalapeno chile peppers and crackers or cornbread."
2 pounds ground beef
½ onion, chopped
1 teaspoon ground black pepper
½ teaspoon garlic salt
2 ½ cups tomato sauce
1 (8 ounce) jar salsa
4 tablespoons chili seasoning mix
1 (15 ounce) can light red kidney beans
1 (15 ounce) can dark red kidney beans
In a large saucepan over medium heat, combine the ground beef and the onion and saute for 10 minutes, or until meat is browned and onion is tender. Drain grease, if desired.
Add the ground black pepper, garlic salt, tomato sauce, salsa, chili seasoning mix and kidney beans. Mix well, reduce heat to low and simmer for at least an hour.
A note from George, I would drop the kidney beans and use two cans of Pinto beans, Patty would use the recipe as is.
You will love this do it yourself (DIY or diy) home projects on How to Make a Spider Rifle. If you are afraid of spiders or simply don't like them in your house, you'll want to take a look at this fun projects to do at home. The do it yourself home projects is an easy do it yourself ideas that will get rid of spiders from your home, and the best part about this spider rifle is that it doesn't harm the spiders. The diy ideas for the spider rifle isn't an actual gun like you might be thinking, it's just a suction type of instrument that will capture the spider safely and then release it out again. This projects to do is especially great for people who don't want to kill spiders but just don't want them around the house. Some people have a great fear of spiders, also known as arachnopohobia, and there are many people who suffer from this strong fear. The fear of spiders is so strong in some people that it can put the person with the phobia into a state of severe shock, where they are rendered immobile and in total fear. This diy cool projects is great for people with strong fears of spiders, or if their fear is so strong that they can't even be near spiders someone can help get rid of the spiders for them.
The fun and easy diys spider rifle looks like it would be fun and inexpensive diy cool projects to do on the weekend, then you can have it around to suck up spiders to your hearts content. The kids will especially like this diy ideas as it sets the spiders free at the end. With this fun projects to do at home you then of course have to set the spiders free again, which most people who are scared of spiders will not do, because you actually have to hold the gun with all of the spiders inside it, and then get quite close to them to release them. This do it yourself home projects needs things like PVC piping, a hose clamp, PVC cutting tools and some canned air. These types of diy cool projects are fun for the kids to help with, any time you add compressed air to something the kids just resist.
This do it yourself home projects and diy cool projects for a spider rifle is just one of the fun and easy diys ideas you will find on the "YouTube" site. "YouTube" is a video sharing website that people throughout the world use. Most of the content you will see on the YouTube site has been uploaded by individual people, but you will also find videos posted by media corporations including the BBC, CBS, Hulu, Vevo and other organizations offering some of their material via "YouTube." People who are unregistered "YouTube" users on the site can watch a wide variety of videos, and registered "YouTube" viewers can upload videos to their channels. "YouTube" videos that may be considered offensive can only be seen by registered users. "YouTube" users who confirm themselves to be at least 18 years old can register on the site. You will find all sorts of diy ideas with diy cool projects, do it yourself crafts, do it yourself home improvements, fun diy projects and so much more. You can find almost any type of video you are looking for on the "YouTube" video site, from recipe video tutorials, woodworking projects, woodworking ideas, home repair, DYI, crafting, sewing, dog training, music and so much more. *
I happen to have another type of gun that is to kill flies. I use a small burst of salt crystals and shoot them at the fly. It works most of the time, sort of like a small shotgun blast. To add a thought, it does not bother me when they die as I do not like certain bugs.
This is a facebook post by my nephew. I found it funny and put it into this letter. . .
Be damned, my first world problems!!
While leisurely getting ready for work in my country club home I strolled down stairs for a hot cup of morning java.
As I live the highlife in a DVCC, it has been a long time since we brewed morning deliciousness by the pot, as the time constraints of this life style are cause for instantaneous Keurig brew.
But this was not to be as the Keurig apparently is clogged. But, I am accustomed to the highlife, so I grab the backup Keurig.... yes, the country club lifestyle demands not one, but two brew master devices....
Sitting with a loss for words as apparently GOD decided to punish me for something and the trusty back up brewer is also out of commission. How could this be?
No worries, I remember the local grocer has one of those fancy coffee shops inside his establishment where the common people shop.
Forced to stand in line with said common folk to finally get my morning decaf. What are the things these people order that take so long??
One person orders a short... is that a size??
Next, the 4 shot americano... wow
Then there is the trusty caramel mocky something or other....
I tell the seemingly frazzled brewer of morning joe that I would like a large decaf.. I can feel it, the time is near..:: the wait is almost over or so I thought.
Apparently my request was a secret code of which I was unaware that resulted in a staring contest between myself and the clerk.....I won this challenge, as she broke first with the bad news that they don't have large.
For the love of God, why can't I just get a cup of coffee??
While not unaccustomed to having to accept less than my original desires, I tell the clerk a medium will have to do.
Holy crap, the code again..... is this a game? "She says, do you mean Grande?" How is it that she gave in so fast? Did I look angry, or did she just realize my keen negotiation skills would be too much? I mean to cave and give me a grande when I was prepared to accept a simple medium....
Feeling proud I jumped in the car and joined the masses in I66 gridlock only to realize she slipped me a leaky cup.....
Well played Starbucks clerk, well played
A dumb blonde was really tired of being made fun of, so she decided to have her hair color changed so she would look like a brunette. With her new hair color, she decided to take a drive in the country.
After she had been driving for a while, she saw a farmer and a flock of sheep and thought, "Oh! Those sheep are so adorable!"
She got out and walked over to the farmer and said, "If I can guess how many sheep you have, can I take one home?"
The farmer, being a bit of a gambler himself, said she could have a try.
The blonde looked at the flock and guessed, "157."
The farmer was amazed - she was right! So the blonde, (who looked like a brunette), picked one out and got back into her car. Before she left, farmer walked up to her and said.
"If I can guess the real color of your hair, can I have my dog back?"
A lawyer and a blonde are sitting next to each other on a long flight from LA to NY. The lawyer leans over to her and asks if she would like to play a fun game. The blonde just wants to take a nap, so she politely declines and rolls over to the window to catch a few winks.
The lawyer persists and explains that the game is really easy and a lot of fun. He explains "I ask you a question, and if you don't know the answer, you pay me $5, and visa-versa." Again, she politely declines and tries to get some sleep.
The lawyer, now somewhat agitated, says, "Okay, if you don't know the answer you pay me $5, and if I don't know the answer, I will pay you $50!" figuring that since she is a blonde that he will easily win the match.
This catches the blonde's attention and, figuring that there will be no end to this torment unless she plays, agrees to the game.
The lawyer asks the first question. "What's the distance from the earth to the moon?" The blonde doesn't say a word, reaches into her purse, pulls out a five-dollar bill and hands it to the lawyer.
Now, it's the blonde's turn. She asks the lawyer "What goes up a hill with three legs, and comes down with four?" The lawyer looks at her with a puzzled look. He takes out his laptop computer and searches all his references. He taps into the Airphone with his modem and searches the Net and the Library of Congress. Frustrated, he sends E-mails to all his coworkers and friends he knows. All to no avail.
After over an hour, he wakes the blonde and hands her $50. The blonde politely takes the $50 and turns away to get back to sleep.
The lawyer, who is more than a little miffed, wakes the blonde and asks, "Well, so what IS the answer!?"
Without a word, the blonde reaches into her purse, hands the lawyer $5, and goes back to sleep.
In 1957, the U.S. Food and drug Administration approved the production and sale of the first oral contraceptive for women known as “the pill.”
The medication, containing a combination of the hormones estrogen and progestin, is designed to suppress ovulation by preventing the ovaries from releasing an egg. In addition, the pills, taken daily, cause changes in cervical mucus and the lining of the uterus, making it difficult for sperm to reach an egg (thus preventing fertilization) and keeping any fertilized eggs from attaching to the uterine wall and developing.
The fight for oral contraception for women began in 1951, when women’s rights activist Margaret Sanger persuaded endocrinologist Gregory Pincus to develop a pill that women could take to prevent pregnancy. At that time, conservative public opinion condemned birth control for women. The powerful Catholic Church warned that using artificial means of preventing pregnancy was a sin. It was against the law in most states to even sell contraceptives.
In 1944, Dr Pincus opened the Worcester Foundation for Experimental Biology in Massachusetts. His work focused on the role of hormones in reproduction. A year later Pincus met obstetrician John Rock, who had also been working on developing chemical contraception for women, and they combined their efforts. Sanger also recruited Katherine McCormic, a biologist, women’s right advocate and heiress, to fund the mission.
In 1954 the scientists surreptitiously tested birth control pills on a sampling of women. The medication worked to prevent pregnancy. With public pressure mounting and religious and co9nservative forces working against him, Dr. Pincus felt compelled to reveal his work and declare success.
In a sly marketing move, the scientists and the G.D. Searle pharmaceutical company decided to ask the FDA to approve the pill not as a contraceptive but instead as a method for regulating irregular, severe menstrual cycles. A warning able on the bottle, however, read”Warning: This pill will likely prevent pregnancy.” Suddenly, an inordinately high number of women reported irregular cycles to their physicians.
By 1960, the pill was approved by the FDA for use as a contraceptive, and within two years, more than 1.2 million women had prescriptions. By 1965, 6.5 million American women were on the pill, and today, more than 10 million women are. The pill has contributed to lower birth rates, fewer unwanted children and the addition of millions of women to the workforce.
That is it for this week. George
Weekly copy can be requested from firstname.lastname@example.org.
I am on facebook at www.facebook.com/george.rucker.37